Tonight will have mostly clear skies and overnight lows ranging from 43 degrees in Ashland to 56 degrees in Brainerd.

Cloud coverage will increase Monday morning, but most of the area will stay dry until the evening. Afternoon showers are possible in northern Koochiching County ahead of the main portion of the incoming system.

Rain will become slightly more widespread in the early evening but stay north of the Iron Range until around 8 pm. By 10 pm, the Twin Ports and the Arrowhead will start having light rain.

Starting at around midnight, rain will get much heavier. As this system continues to spread eastward, it will reach northern Wisconsin by 4 am. The heaviest rainfall will be 2-5 am. Rain will clear Tuesday morning from west to east, exiting the region by noon.

Although this round of rain will be relatively brief, the impacts will be noteworthy. The vast majority of the Northland will get over half an inch of rain. Many areas can expect an inch, and we could see over two inches of rain within thunderstorms.

There is a chance of isolated thunderstorms having large hail and damaging winds, but the focus will be on the heavy rainfall. Portions of the region received over three times the normal amount of June rain accumulation, so the soil is much more saturated than normal. A Flood Watch has been issued for Koochiching, Lake, and Cook Counties as well as northern St. Louis and Itasca Counties.

The second half of Tuesday will be dry, and Wednesday will be sunny and warm. Rain chances return Thursday evening, potentially around the time for fireworks.

Tonight

Clear, with a low around 49. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Monday

A 20 percent chance of showers before 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. Breezy, with a south wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Monday Night

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 55. Breezy, with a southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tuesday

A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm, then a slight chance of showers between 1pm and 4pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Southeast wind around 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday

Sunny, with a high near 78. Breezy, with a west wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Independence Day

A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon.

Friday

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, with a high near 72. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.

Saturday

A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. West wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.

Sunday

A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.