Although fall has had a warm and dry start, we will eventually see the season change. The Storm Track Weather Team wants everyone to be ready for what will feel more like a Northland winter. Lea Zmurko recaps last winter and explains the global pattern change that is happening currently; Sabrina Ullman researched previous winters and shows trends that we will likely see this winter; Justin Liles breaks down the full winter forecast, month to month. 

Recapping Last Winter

As we look at the big picture for the upcoming winter, let’s first recount how last year impacted the Northland economically. It was a strong El Niño year, and the Northland saw above-average temperatures. This made it the second least-snowiest winter on record in Duluth with only 38.7 inches of snow. That is roughly 50 inches below the average of 90.2 inches. 

Without a consistent cold stretch, lakes could not freeze completely. There were countless incidents of people falling through ice or becoming stranded on an ice sheet, such as on Upper Red Lake. 

RELATED: Why did Upper Red Lake have so many incidents?

Ski hills struggled to get initial snow cover, and resorts had to make snow all winter. No snow also meant cancellations of some favorite Northland events, including the John Beargrease Sled Dog Marathon and the ALS Blizzard Tour. There were also changes to the American Birkibiener course. 

The underwhelming winter left tourism and recreation industries hurting. Winter sales were down, snow removal equipment wasn’t needed, and the hospitality sector took major financial hits. 

A Shifting Pattern

As Meteorologist Lea Zmurko explains, this year will be different. Sea surface temperatures across the Pacific are cooler than normal as the weather pattern shifts from El Niño to La Niña. These conditions are expected to persist through March.

“The polar jet stream will shift further north, resulting in below-normal temperatures and above-normal snow conditions across the Northland,” explained Lea. “With more snow security and consistently cold temperatures this winter, this will have a positive economic impact for the Northland.”

Winters with Similar Trends

Past trends give us a hint at what is to come. Snowfall amounts in La Niña winters that follow El Niño winters vary but tend to be higher. Meteorologist Sabrina Ullman breaks down two winters with a similar pattern to what is likely for this season. 

Let’s start with the winter of 1983-1984. Minnesota recorded its coldest December ever that winter. In Tower, a statewide daily record was set on December 19th as temperatures dropped to -52 degrees. Tower also set record-low temperatures on December 20 and March 9th.

This winter was also noteworthy for the blizzard of February 4-5. With blizzard conditions, hundreds were stranded in vehicles or fish houses, and 16 people died from severe wind chills. 

Another winter with similar conditions to this year was the winter of controversy, the record-breaking winter of 1995-96. On February 2nd, 1996, Embarrass claims to have set the record for the all-time coldest temperature in Minnesota at -64 degrees. The official record for the coldest temperature went to the neighboring town of Tower at -60 degrees. 

The winter of 1995-96 also stood out for having five blizzards in Minnesota. These storms contributed to Duluth’s 135 inches of snow, a record held until two years ago.

RELATED: Duluth’s winter of 2022-23 breaks snowfall record

Chief Meteorologist Justin Liles breaks down the full winter forecast for the Northland. He says that understanding where we have been is an important tool to know where we are going. Since the last two winters have been opposites, what will this winter be like?

Month-by-Month Forecast

November will begin with a small blanket of snow, likely just in time for the Minnesota Deer Opener. Justin predicts we will have colder conditions towards the middle of the month, with overnight lows in the single digits. He also says that sometime between November 20 and 30, we will have our first potential blizzard. 

Going into December, Justin is forecasting daytime highs in the single digits, a snowstorm around December 12, and extreme cold around Christmas. Bitter cold conditions will continue into January. 

“This is going to be very interesting because even though we start bitterly cold, I think we’ll see a short January thaw in the 40s following thereafter,” said Justin. “But the one thing that we are going to be looking at is the return of that dreaded word: the polar vortex. That looks to return by the end of the month, which means the John Beargrease is going to be extremely cold for the mushers. The dogs might like it, but any spectators are going to have to look at extreme cold as well.”

For February, Justin is predicting a very cold start with a stretch of daytime highs below zero impacting the ALS Blizzard Tour. Somewhere in Minnesota, there is a good possibility of a blizzard. This will likely stay mostly to the west and to the south. There is expected to be enough snow of the ground for the Birkie. 

“The Birkie should be absolutely perfect this year, and we’re looking at a nice mild end to the month,” said Justin. 

For March, there is expected to be more snowfall than in February but a roller coaster of temperatures. April will be a transition month with the changes of spring. We will get snow but also rainfall. Foggy and cloudy conditions will result in cooler-than-average temperatures for April, and we could see light snow heading into May. 

Snowfall Totals

For this winter, snowfall totals are expected to be mostly near 100 inches in the Northland. The U.P. is looking at closer to 150 inches, maybe more, due to lake-effect snow. The Twin Ports will see 110 inches. Areas west of Duluth will be in the 60-80 inch range. 

Overall, the Storm Track Weather Team is predicting above-normal snowfall and below-average temperatures. Unlike the last two years, we will have a winter closer to normal.