Brandon Weatherz: Tracking winds, rain, and lakeshore flooding

Our Thursday starts frosty for many areas away from Lake Superior with temperatures in low to mid-30s. The day will feature a mix of clouds and sun and an increasing east wind that will direct light lake effect rain showers along the North Shore and into the Twin Ports. Periods of lake effect remains possible locally today, tonight, and into Friday. A potent weather system tracking to our south will bring widespread rain arriving from the south late Thursday night.

Rain stays generally along and south of U.S. Hwy 2 on Friday. Around a quarter inch is expected in the Twin Ports, then amounts drop off quickly looking north with the Iron Range staying under 0.1”. Potential for 1” or more focuses near and south of a line from Brainerd to Hayward to Butternut. Widespread rain exits to the southeast Friday night with lingering lake effect chances staying near the Head of Lake Superior and along the South Shore on Saturday. Any additional accumulation would remain light.

Winds will also be a contender with this system. An east wind picks up near 15 mph by this afternoon, then Friday will see winds near Lake Superior sustained around 25 mph with gusts near 40. A Lakeshore Flood Watch is in effect for South St. Louis County from 7 am Friday until 4 am Saturday with waves expected to build to 10 to 15 feet. Flooding is possible in Canal Park. Winds will be less intense on Saturday, but swells will linger as a breezy northeast wind sticks around.

Temperatures see little change in the days ahead from what we’ve seen lately. Highs reach low to upper 50s today. Cloudier skies ahead of the rain moving in tonight will keep lows mostly in the 40s. Tomorrow is a touch cooler with mid-40s to low 50s. Saturday will be similarly cool, then Sunday brings a return of widespread 50s. A quiet and seasonable stretch will then be with us through the start of next week.